In The Hobbit collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 10.76 showcase cards per box - roughly 0.897 per pack. That works out to a 100.0% chance of pulling at least one showcase card per box, or about 1 in 2 for your first hit. The chase end is often Smaug the Magnificent (about 1 in 5 for that specific printing).
Showcase frame treatments across multiple slots.
Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.
| Card | Price | Expected / box | P(≥1) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Smaug the Magnificent #229 · mythic | $51.78 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart #234 · mythic | $29.39 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
The Queen of Dale #217 · mythic | $24.00 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
Orcrist, Goblin-cleaver #236 · mythic | $23.91 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
Bilbo, Thief in the Night #219 · mythic | $22.11 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
Beorn the Fierce #230 · mythic | $14.33 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
Fateful Discovery #220 · mythic | $11.56 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
Dancing from Dark to Dawn #231 · mythic | $9.72 | 0.215 | 19.3% | 1 in 5 |
Belladonna Took #214 · rare | $5.00 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
My Precious // Allure of Power #235 · rare | $3.00 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Elven Passage #238 · rare | $1.98 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Desert Were-Worm #225 · rare | $1.44 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Head of the Hunt #224 · rare | $1.35 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Desolation of Smaug #226 · rare | $1.25 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Sting, Bilbo's Sword #237 · rare | $0.75 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Azog, Moria's Ruin #222 · rare | $0.74 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Last Light of Durin's Day #228 · rare | $0.58 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
The Notary Hobbits #232 · rare | $0.50 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Most Decrepit Old Bird // Speak Secrets #221 · rare | $0.45 | 0.429 | 34.9% | 1 in 3 |
Thranduil, Sindarin Liege // Silvan Rally #233 · uncommon | $0.40 | 0.720 | 51.3% | 1 in 2 |
Glóin the Mighty // Easy Pickings #227 · uncommon | $0.28 | 0.720 | 51.3% | 1 in 2 |
Great Ugly-Looking Goblin // Clap! Snap! #223 · uncommon | $0.28 | 0.720 | 51.3% | 1 in 2 |
Iron Hills Blacksmith #216 · uncommon | $0.25 | 0.720 | 51.3% | 1 in 2 |
Bofur, Reliable Guardian // Concerted Care #215 · uncommon | $0.25 | 0.720 | 51.3% | 1 in 2 |
Bilbo, Luckwearer // Burglar's Plot #218 · uncommon | $0.25 | 0.720 | 51.3% | 1 in 2 |