Showcase pull rates

Showcase frame treatments across multiple slots. Across 37 collector booster products, the average expected rate is about 28.77 showcase cards per box (100% chance of at least one per box, roughly Every time).

Pull rates are computed from MTGJSON collector-booster collation (slot weights and pack configs). Treatment labels (Serialized, Surge foil, etc.) come from Scryfall. We dedupe chase cards duplicated into common showcase sheets and cap serialized-only slots at Wizards' published “<1% per pack” ceiling when multiple numbered cards share one slot. “1 in N boxes” uses a Poisson model: P(at least one per box) = 1 − e^−expected. Full methodology.

By set

Click a set for card-level odds and top chase printings.

Set	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Marvel Super HeroesMSH	3.79 cards	97.7%	1 in 2
Secrets of StrixhavenSOS	34.80 cards	100.0%	Every time
Teenage Mutant Ninja TurtlesTMT	16.63 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Lorwyn EclipsedECL	32.97 cards	100.0%	Every time
Avatar: The Last AirbenderTLA	4.25 cards	98.6%	1 in 2
Marvel's Spider-ManSPM	4.17 cards	98.4%	1 in 2
Edge of EternitiesEOE	3.39 cards	96.6%	1 in 2
Tarkir: DragonstormTDM	49.09 cards	100.0%	Every time
AetherdriftDFT	1.08 cards	66.0%	1 in 2
Innistrad RemasteredINR	1.56 cards	79.0%	1 in 2
FoundationsFDN	1.74 cards	82.4%	1 in 2
Duskmourn: House of HorrorDSK	12.00 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
BloomburrowBLB	17.83 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Assassin's CreedACR	16.92 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Outlaws of Thunder JunctionOTJ	43.86 cards	100.0%	Every time
Murders at Karlov ManorMKM	39.05 cards	100.0%	Every time
The Lost Caverns of IxalanLCI	18.51 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Wilds of EldraineWOE	48.18 cards	100.0%	Every time
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earthLTR	22.22 cards	100.0%	Every time
March of the Machine: The AftermathMAT	20.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
March of the MachineMOM	30.06 cards	100.0%	Every time
Phyrexia: All Will Be OneONE	38.86 cards	100.0%	Every time
Dominaria UnitedDMU	23.12 cards	100.0%	Every time
Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's GateCLB	25.51 cards	100.0%	Every time
Streets of New CapennaSNC	47.54 cards	100.0%	Every time
Kamigawa: Neon DynastyNEO	63.89 cards	100.0%	Every time
Innistrad: Crimson VowVOW	47.93 cards	100.0%	Every time
Innistrad: Midnight HuntMID	60.55 cards	100.0%	Every time
Adventures in the Forgotten RealmsAFR	46.63 cards	100.0%	Every time
Modern Horizons 2MH2	31.10 cards	100.0%	Every time
Strixhaven: School of MagesSTX	20.91 cards	100.0%	Every time
KaldheimKHM	35.52 cards	100.0%	Every time
Zendikar RisingZNR	43.24 cards	100.0%	Every time
Core Set 2021M21	64.49 cards	100.0%	Every time
Ikoria: Lair of BehemothsIKO	46.43 cards	100.0%	Every time
Theros Beyond DeathTHB	10.96 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Throne of EldraineELD	35.72 cards	100.0%	Every time