In Modern Horizons 2 collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 31.10 showcase cards per box - roughly 2.59 per pack. That works out to a 100.0% chance of pulling at least one showcase card per box, or about Every time for your first hit. The chase end is often Esper Sentinel (about 1 in 3 for that specific printing).
Showcase frame treatments across multiple slots.
Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.
| Card | Price | Expected / box | P(≥1) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Esper Sentinel #328 · rare | $56.81 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Urza's Saga #380 · rare | $37.00 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Archon of Cruelty #342 · mythic | $6.71 | 0.203 | 18.4% | 1 in 5 |
Serra's Emissary #333 · mythic | $6.00 | 0.203 | 18.4% | 1 in 5 |
Kaldra Compleat #379 · mythic | $6.00 | 0.203 | 18.4% | 1 in 5 |
Murktide Regent #337 · mythic | $5.69 | 0.203 | 18.4% | 1 in 5 |
Harmonic Prodigy #352 · rare | $3.22 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Sythis, Harvest's Hand #377 · rare | $2.00 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Fractured Sanity #336 · rare | $1.07 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Persist #345 · rare | $0.99 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Sylvan Anthem #357 · rare | $0.95 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Grist, the Hunger Tide #368 · mythic | $0.95 | 0.203 | 18.4% | 1 in 5 |
Ignoble Hierarch #355 · rare | $0.81 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Thought Monitor #341 · rare | $0.74 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Obsidian Charmaw #353 · rare | $0.68 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Timeless Witness #358 · uncommon | $0.30 | 0.598 | 45.0% | 1 in 2 |
Nykthos Paragon #331 · rare | $0.30 | 0.407 | 33.4% | 1 in 3 |
Dakkon, Shadow Slayer #363 · mythic | $0.25 | 0.203 | 18.4% | 1 in 5 |
World-Weary #348 · common | $0.00 | 1.20 | 69.8% | 1 in 2 |
Phantasmal Dreadmaw #339 · common | $0.00 | 1.20 | 69.8% | 1 in 2 |
Kitchen Imp #343 · common | $0.00 | 1.20 | 69.8% | 1 in 2 |
Faithless Salvaging #349 · common | $0.00 | 1.20 | 69.8% | 1 in 2 |
Jade Avenger #356 · common | $0.00 | 1.20 | 69.8% | 1 in 2 |
Gargadon #351 · common | $0.00 | 1.20 | 69.8% | 1 in 2 |
Abundant Harvest #354 · common | $0.00 | 1.20 | 69.8% | 1 in 2 |