Serialized pull rates
Numbered /N printings that appear in a dedicated rare slot. Among the scarcest pulls in modern collector boosters. Across 14 collector booster products, the average expected rate is about 0.058 serialized cards per box (6% chance of at least one per box, roughly 1 in 18).
Pull rates are computed from MTGJSON collector-booster collation (slot weights and pack configs). Treatment labels (Serialized, Surge foil, etc.) come from Scryfall. We dedupe chase cards duplicated into common showcase sheets and cap serialized-only slots at Wizards' published “<1% per pack” ceiling when multiple numbered cards share one slot. “1 in N boxes” uses a Poisson model: P(at least one per box) = 1 − e−expected. Full methodology.
By set
Click a set for card-level odds and top chase printings.
| Set | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secrets of StrixhavenSOS | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
| Lorwyn EclipsedECL | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
| Final FantasyFIN | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
| Tarkir: DragonstormTDM | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
| AetherdriftDFT | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
| Innistrad RemasteredINR | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
| Assassin's CreedACR | 0.096 cards | 9.2% | 1 in 11 |
| Modern Horizons 3MH3 | 0.072 cards | 6.9% | 1 in 14 |
| Murders at Karlov ManorMKM | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Ravnica RemasteredRVR | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition)LTR-SE | 0.018 cards | 1.8% | 1 in 56 |
| The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earthLTR | 0.0078 cards | 0.8% | 1 in 130 |
| March of the MachineMOM | 0.180 cards | 16.5% | 1 in 6 |
| The Brothers' WarBRO | 0.060 cards | 5.8% | 1 in 17 |