In March of the Machine collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 0.180 serialized cards per box - roughly 0.015 per pack. That works out to a 16.5% chance of pulling at least one serialized card per box, or about 1 in 6 for your first hit. The chase end is often Sheoldred // The True Scriptures (about 1 in 84 for that specific printing).
Numbered /N printings that appear in a dedicated rare slot. Among the scarcest pulls in modern collector boosters.
Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.
| Card | Price | Expected / box | P(≥1) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sheoldred // The True Scriptures #340 · mythic | $3,165 | 0.012 | 1.2% | 1 in 84 |
Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings #338 · mythic | $1,976 | 0.012 | 1.2% | 1 in 84 |
Jin-Gitaxias // The Great Synthesis #339 · mythic | $1,236 | 0.012 | 1.2% | 1 in 84 |
Urabrask // The Great Work #341 · mythic | $1,077 | 0.012 | 1.2% | 1 in 84 |
Atraxa, Praetors' Voice #163z · mythic | $1,000 | 0.0008 | 0.1% | 1 in 1250 |
Vorinclex // The Grand Evolution #342 · mythic | $905 | 0.012 | 1.2% | 1 in 84 |
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer #151z · mythic | $817 | 0.0008 | 0.1% | 1 in 1250 |
Sheoldred, Whispering One #146z · mythic | $800 | 0.0008 | 0.1% | 1 in 1250 |
Ayara, First of Locthwain #143z · rare | $631 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur #141z · mythic | $600 | 0.0008 | 0.1% | 1 in 1250 |
Jegantha, the Wellspring #174z · rare | $597 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Zirda, the Dawnwaker #195z · rare | $572 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Dina, Soul Steeper #167z · uncommon | $568 | 0.0030 | 0.3% | 1 in 330 |
Fynn, the Fangbearer #156z · uncommon | $550 | 0.0030 | 0.3% | 1 in 330 |
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben #137z · rare | $550 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Teysa Karlov #191z · rare | $500 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Lurrus of the Dream-Den #181z · rare | $485 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Squee, the Immortal #152z · rare | $480 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Zada, Hedron Grinder #155z · uncommon | $479 | 0.0030 | 0.3% | 1 in 330 |
Niv-Mizzet Reborn #183z · mythic | $471 | 0.0008 | 0.1% | 1 in 1250 |
Yorion, Sky Nomad #194z · rare | $453 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Emry, Lurker of the Loch #139z · rare | $450 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger #159z · mythic | $424 | 0.0008 | 0.1% | 1 in 1250 |
Sram, Senior Edificer #136z · rare | $413 | 0.0016 | 0.2% | 1 in 630 |
Grimgrin, Corpse-Born #171z · mythic | $400 | 0.0008 | 0.1% | 1 in 1250 |