Modern Horizons 3: Serialized pull rate

In Modern Horizons 3 collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 0.072 serialized cards per box - roughly 0.0060 per pack. That works out to a 6.9% chance of pulling at least one serialized card per box, or about 1 in 14 for your first hit. The chase end is often Ulamog, the Defiler (about 1 in 42 for that specific printing).

Numbered /N printings that appear in a dedicated rare slot. Among the scarcest pulls in modern collector boosters.

Expected / box
0.072
cards
P(≥1 per box)
6.9%
1 in N boxes
1 in 14

Top Serialized cards in MH3

Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.

CardPriceExpected / boxP(≥1)1 in N boxes
Ulamog, the Defiler
#383z · mythic
$2,3350.0242.4%1 in 42
Emrakul, the World Anew
#381z · mythic
$2,0950.0242.4%1 in 42
Kozilek, the Broken Reality
#382z · mythic
$1,1130.0242.4%1 in 42