In Murders at Karlov Manor collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 0.120 serialized cards per box - roughly 0.010 per pack. That works out to a 11.3% chance of pulling at least one serialized card per box, or about 1 in 9 for your first hit. The chase end is often Aurelia, the Law Above (about 1 in 59 for that specific printing).
Numbered /N printings that appear in a dedicated rare slot. Among the scarcest pulls in modern collector boosters.
Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.
| Card | Price | Expected / box | P(≥1) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aurelia, the Law Above #317z · rare | $800 | 0.017 | 1.7% | 1 in 59 |
Teysa, Opulent Oligarch #321z · rare | $743 | 0.017 | 1.7% | 1 in 59 |
Vannifar, Evolved Enigma #323z · mythic | $600 | 0.017 | 1.7% | 1 in 59 |
Niv-Mizzet, Guildpact #319z · rare | $600 | 0.017 | 1.7% | 1 in 59 |
Trostani, Three Whispers #322z · mythic | $500 | 0.017 | 1.7% | 1 in 59 |
Rakdos, Patron of Chaos #320z · mythic | $400 | 0.017 | 1.7% | 1 in 59 |
Lazav, Wearer of Faces #318z · rare | $340 | 0.017 | 1.7% | 1 in 59 |