MH3·Released Jun 14, 2024·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Modern Horizons 3 collector booster EV
Verdict
Bad bet
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$366
$488
$626
$694
$875
Floor (10%)
$366
Typical
$488
Average (EV)
$626
Lucky (90%)
$694
Box price
$875
The average box ($626) is $138 above a typical box ($488) — 22%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
93%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
7%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $875
EV $626 · 83rd
Median $488
$0$383$767$1,150$1,533$1,917$2,300
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 83rd percentile — 83% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Modern Horizons 3 collector boosterbox TCG low $875, expected value $626, median box $488, 7% break-even, −29% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Modern Horizons 3 collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Modern Horizons 3 collector booster box is $626 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $488.
What are the odds of breaking even on Modern Horizons 3 collector boosters?
About 7% of simulated Modern Horizons 3 collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($875). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Modern Horizons 3 sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $626 vs sealed $875 (−29% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$30.93 (5.2%) · Box +$24.94 (2.9%) over 3m · ROI +1.5%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$875
Standalone pack listing
$84.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$72.91
EV per pack
$52.13
$626 / box
Return opening box
−29%
Return buying packs at listing
−39%
The box is the better deal per pack ($72.91 vs $84.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −29% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$2,335
Pull any copy
1 in 42 (2.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
29
Cost of those boxes
$25,373
Boxes for 95% chance
124
Cost at 95%
$108,491
You'd spend about $25,373 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ulamog, the Defiler, vs $2,335 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.