Fracture foil pull rates
Fracture foil treatment on selected mythics and rares. Across 6 collector booster products, the average expected rate is about 0.120 fracture foil cards per box (11% chance of at least one per box, roughly 1 in 9).
Pull rates are computed from MTGJSON collector-booster collation (slot weights and pack configs). Treatment labels (Serialized, Surge foil, etc.) come from Scryfall. We dedupe chase cards duplicated into common showcase sheets and cap serialized-only slots at Wizards' published “<1% per pack” ceiling when multiple numbered cards share one slot. “1 in N boxes” uses a Poisson model: P(at least one per box) = 1 − e−expected. Full methodology.
By set
Click a set for card-level odds and top chase printings.
| Set | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teenage Mutant Ninja TurtlesTMT | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Lorwyn EclipsedECL | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Edge of EternitiesEOE | 0.121 cards | 11.4% | 1 in 9 |
| AetherdriftDFT | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| FoundationsFDN | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Duskmourn: House of HorrorDSK | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |