Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$127
$196
$301
$515
$1,029
Floor (10%)
$127
Typical
$196
Average (EV)
$301
Lucky (90%)
$515
Box price
$1,029
The average box ($301) is $105 above a typical box ($196) — 35%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
6%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $1,029
EV $301
Median $196
$0$275$550$825$1,100$1,375$1,650
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
March of the Machine collector boosterbox TCG low $1,029, expected value $301, median box $196, 6% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a March of the Machine collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a March of the Machine collector booster box is $301 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $196.
What are the odds of breaking even on March of the Machine collector boosters?
About 6% of simulated March of the Machine collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,029). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold March of the Machine sealed?
Money pit. EV is $301 vs sealed $1,029 (−71% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$4.04 (1.4%) · Box +$387 (59.7%) over 3m · ROI −16.7%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$1,029
Standalone pack listing
$89.59
Implied pack (box / packs)
$85.75
EV per pack
$25.06
$301 / box
Return opening box
−71%
Return buying packs at listing
−72%
The box is the better deal per pack ($85.75 vs $89.59 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −71% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,976
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$59,682
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$256,221
You'd spend about $59,682 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings, vs $1,976 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.