Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$133
$200
$327
$515
$960
Floor (10%)
$133
Typical
$200
Average (EV)
$327
Lucky (90%)
$515
Box price
$960
The average box ($327) is $126 above a typical box ($200) — 39%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
6%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $960
EV $327 · 82nd
Median $200
$0$258$517$775$1,033$1,292$1,550
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 82nd percentile — 82% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
March of the Machine collector boosterbox TCG low $960, expected value $327, median box $200, 6% break-even, −66% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a March of the Machine collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a March of the Machine collector booster box is $327 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $200.
What are the odds of breaking even on March of the Machine collector boosters?
About 6% of simulated March of the Machine collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($960). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold March of the Machine sealed?
Money pit. EV is $327 vs sealed $960 (−66% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$32.70 (11.1%) · Box +$260 (37.1%) over 3m · ROI −8.0%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$960
Standalone pack listing
$117
Implied pack (box / packs)
$79.97
EV per pack
$27.21
$327 / box
Return opening box
−66%
Return buying packs at listing
−77%
The box is the better deal per pack ($79.97 vs $117 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −66% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$3,165
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$55,662
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$238,963
You'd spend about $55,662 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sheoldred // The True Scriptures, vs $3,165 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.