Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$133
$202
$331
$500
$918
Floor (10%)
$133
Typical
$202
Average (EV)
$331
Lucky (90%)
$500
Box price
$918
The average box ($331) is $129 above a typical box ($202) — 39%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
6%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $918
EV $331 · 83rd
Median $202
$0$250$500$750$1,000$1,250$1,500
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 83rd percentile — 83% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
March of the Machine collector boosterbox TCG low $918, expected value $331, median box $202, 6% break-even, −64% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a March of the Machine collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a March of the Machine collector booster box is $331 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $202.
What are the odds of breaking even on March of the Machine collector boosters?
About 6% of simulated March of the Machine collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($918). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold March of the Machine sealed?
Money pit. EV is $331 vs sealed $918 (−64% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$30.19 (10.0%) · Box −$111 (-10.8%) over 3m · ROI +6.8%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$918
Standalone pack listing
$82.49
Implied pack (box / packs)
$76.50
EV per pack
$27.61
$331 / box
Return opening box
−64%
Return buying packs at listing
−67%
The box is the better deal per pack ($76.50 vs $82.49 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −64% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$3,165
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$53,244
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$228,582
You'd spend about $53,244 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sheoldred // The True Scriptures, vs $3,165 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.