Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($248) is $63.63 above a typical box ($184) — 26%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
89%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
12%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 77th percentile — 77% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Murders at Karlov Manor collector boosterbox TCG low $387, expected value $248, median box $184, 12% break-even, −36% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$1.74 (0.7%) · Box −$10.84 (-2.7%) over 3m · ROI +2.2%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $30.00 vs $32.25 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $20.63/pack (−31% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $774 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Undercity Sewers, vs $54.89 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 39.05 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 28.02 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 4.93 cards | 99.3% | 1 in 2 |
| Serialized | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference