Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($427) is $7.58 above a typical box ($419) — 2%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
96%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
4%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 52nd percentile — 52% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Modern Horizons 2 collector boosterbox TCG low $633, expected value $427, median box $419, 5% break-even, −33% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$57.33 (15.5%) · Box +$92.91 (17.2%) over 3m · ROI −1.0%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($52.74 vs $65.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −33% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,899 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Force of Negation, vs $110 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 127.71 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 31.10 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 15.70 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 5.49 cards | 99.6% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference