Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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LTR·Released Jun 23, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$2,475
$206/pack
Expected value
$573
$47.74/pack
Net EV
−$1,902
Break-even
0.8%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −77%

Sol Ring

$6,174 · 1 in 810 · 0% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$330
$501
$573
$809
$2,475
Floor (10%)
$330
Typical
$501
Average (EV)
$573
Lucky (90%)
$809
Box price
$2,475

The average box ($573) is $72.32 above a typical box ($501) — 13%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

99%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

1%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $2,475
EV $573
Median $501
$0$667$1,333$2,000$2,667$3,333$4,000

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth collector boosterbox TCG low $2,475, expected value $573, median box $501, 1% break-even, −77% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth collector booster box is $573 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $501.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($2,475). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth sealed?
Money pit. EV is $573 vs sealed $2,475 (−77% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV −$362 (-38.7%) · Box +$1,275 (106.3%) over 3m · ROI −54.8%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$2,475
Standalone pack listing
$230
Implied pack (box / packs)
$206
EV per pack
$47.74
$573 / box
Return opening box
−77%
Return buying packs at listing
−79%

The box is the better deal per pack ($206 vs $230 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −77% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$149
Pull any copy
1 in 6 (17.9% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
4
Cost of those boxes
$9,900
Boxes for 95% chance
14
Cost at 95%
$34,650

You'd spend about $9,900 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ancient Tomb, vs $149 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard97.35 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless34.87 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art25.45 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase22.22 cards100.0%Every time
Surge foil0.096 cards9.2%1 in 11
Serialized0.0078 cards0.8%1 in 130

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference