Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($198) is $33.40 above a typical box ($165) — 17%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
91%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
9%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 70th percentile — 70% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles collector boosterbox TCG low $300, expected value $198, median box $165, 9% break-even, −34% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$16.89 (-7.8%) · Box −$128 (-29.9%) over 3m · ROI +15.8%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($25.00 vs $30.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −34% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $300 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Doubling Season, vs $30.00 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 107.38 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 25.40 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Surge foil | 17.82 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 16.63 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 12.65 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Fracture foil | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Headliner | 0.0060 cards | 0.6% | 1 in 170 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference