Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($197) is $5.69 above a typical box ($191) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 54th percentile — 54% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Core Set 2021 collector boosterbox TCG low $494, expected value $197, median box $191, 0% break-even, −60% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$13.11 (7.1%) · Box −$94.80 (-16.1%) over 3m · ROI +8.6%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $37.49 vs $41.17 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $16.38/pack (−56% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $988 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, vs $28.00 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 89.13 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 62.43 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.87 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 9.57 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference