LTR-SE·Released Jun 23, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$1,043
$1,568
$1,770
$2,772
$6,100
Floor (10%)
$1,043
Typical
$1,568
Average (EV)
$1,770
Lucky (90%)
$2,772
Box price
$6,100
The average box ($1,770) is $202 above a typical box ($1,568) — 11%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $6,100
EV $1,770 · 60th
Median $1,568
$0$1,667$3,333$5,000$6,667$8,333$10,000
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 60th percentile — 60% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boosterbox TCG low $6,100, expected value $1,770, median box $1,568, 0% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster box is $1,770 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $1,568.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($6,100). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) sealed?
Money pit. EV is $1,770 vs sealed $6,100 (−71% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$451 (34.2%) · Box +$1,860 (43.9%) over 3m · ROI −2.1%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$6,100
Standalone pack listing
$498
Implied pack (box / packs)
$508
EV per pack
$148
$1,770 / box
Return opening box
−71%
Return buying packs at listing
−70%
Standalone packs list at $498 vs $508 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $148/pack (−70% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,690
Pull any copy
1 in 8 (12.5% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
5
Cost of those boxes
$30,500
Boxes for 95% chance
21
Cost at 95%
$128,100
You'd spend about $30,500 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The One Ring, vs $1,690 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.