LTR-SE·Released Jun 23, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$1,026
$1,546
$1,761
$2,771
$7,099
Floor (10%)
$1,026
Typical
$1,546
Average (EV)
$1,761
Lucky (90%)
$2,771
Box price
$7,099
The average box ($1,761) is $215 above a typical box ($1,546) — 12%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $7,099
EV $1,761 · 61st
Median $1,546
$0$1,917$3,833$5,750$7,667$9,583$11,500
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 61st percentile — 61% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boosterbox TCG low $7,099, expected value $1,761, median box $1,546, 0% break-even, −75% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster box is $1,761 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $1,546.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($7,099). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) sealed?
Money pit. EV is $1,761 vs sealed $7,099 (−75% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$189 (12.0%) · Box −$101 (-1.4%) over 3m · ROI +3.0%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$7,099
Standalone pack listing
$525
Implied pack (box / packs)
$592
EV per pack
$147
$1,761 / box
Return opening box
−75%
Return buying packs at listing
−72%
Standalone packs list at $525 vs $592 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $147/pack (−72% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,788
Pull any copy
1 in 8 (12.5% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
5
Cost of those boxes
$35,495
Boxes for 95% chance
21
Cost at 95%
$149,079
You'd spend about $35,495 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The One Ring, vs $1,788 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.