Headliner pull rates

Premium headliner art (often alternate-art chase cards) at low pull rates. Across 5 collector booster products, the average expected rate is about 0.0077 headliner cards per box (1% chance of at least one per box, roughly 1 in 130).

Pull rates are computed from MTGJSON collector-booster collation (slot weights and pack configs). Treatment labels (Serialized, Surge foil, etc.) come from Scryfall. We dedupe chase cards duplicated into common showcase sheets and cap serialized-only slots at Wizards' published “<1% per pack” ceiling when multiple numbered cards share one slot. “1 in N boxes” uses a Poisson model: P(at least one per box) = 1 − e^−expected. Full methodology.