FDN·Released Nov 15, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Foundations collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$192
$322
$369
$601
$850
Floor (10%)
$192
Typical
$322
Average (EV)
$369
Lucky (90%)
$601
Box price
$850
The average box ($369) is $47.83 above a typical box ($322) — 13%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
97%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
3%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $850
EV $369
Median $322
$0$233$467$700$933$1,167$1,400
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Foundations collector boosterbox TCG low $850, expected value $369, median box $322, 3% break-even, −57% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Foundations collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Foundations collector booster box is $369 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $322.
What are the odds of breaking even on Foundations collector boosters?
About 3% of simulated Foundations collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($850). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Foundations sealed?
Money pit. EV is $369 vs sealed $850 (−57% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$31.27 (9.3%) · Box +$110 (15.7%) over 3m · ROI −2.7%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$850
Standalone pack listing
$89.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$70.83
EV per pack
$30.79
$369 / box
Return opening box
−57%
Return buying packs at listing
−66%
The box is the better deal per pack ($70.83 vs $89.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −57% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$237
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$5,950
Boxes for 95% chance
27
Cost at 95%
$22,950
You'd spend about $5,950 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Doubling Season, vs $237 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.