FDN·Released Nov 15, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Foundations collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$201
$339
$386
$628
$899
Floor (10%)
$201
Typical
$339
Average (EV)
$386
Lucky (90%)
$628
Box price
$899
The average box ($386) is $46.71 above a typical box ($339) — 12%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
97%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
3%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $899
EV $386 · 60th
Median $339
$0$242$483$725$967$1,208$1,450
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 60th percentile — 60% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Foundations collector boosterbox TCG low $899, expected value $386, median box $339, 3% break-even, −57% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Foundations collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Foundations collector booster box is $386 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $339.
What are the odds of breaking even on Foundations collector boosters?
About 3% of simulated Foundations collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($899). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Foundations sealed?
Money pit. EV is $386 vs sealed $899 (−57% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$31.26 (8.8%) · Box +$274 (43.8%) over 3m · ROI −13.8%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$899
Standalone pack listing
$89.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$74.92
EV per pack
$32.15
$386 / box
Return opening box
−57%
Return buying packs at listing
−64%
The box is the better deal per pack ($74.92 vs $89.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −57% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$250
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$6,293
Boxes for 95% chance
27
Cost at 95%
$24,273
You'd spend about $6,293 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Doubling Season, vs $250 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.