FDN·Released Nov 15, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Foundations collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$207
$343
$391
$616
$903
Floor (10%)
$207
Typical
$343
Average (EV)
$391
Lucky (90%)
$616
Box price
$903
The average box ($391) is $48.95 above a typical box ($343) — 13%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $903
EV $391 · 61st
Median $343
$0$242$483$725$967$1,208$1,450
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 61st percentile — 61% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Foundations collector boosterbox TCG low $903, expected value $391, median box $343, 3% break-even, −57% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Foundations collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Foundations collector booster box is $391 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $343.
What are the odds of breaking even on Foundations collector boosters?
About 3% of simulated Foundations collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($903). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Foundations sealed?
Money pit. EV is $391 vs sealed $903 (−57% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$22.02 (6.0%) · Box +$52.97 (6.2%) over 3m · ROI −0.1%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$903
Standalone pack listing
$92.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$75.25
EV per pack
$32.62
$391 / box
Return opening box
−57%
Return buying packs at listing
−65%
The box is the better deal per pack ($75.25 vs $92.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −57% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$240
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$6,321
Boxes for 95% chance
27
Cost at 95%
$24,380
You'd spend about $6,321 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Doubling Season, vs $240 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.