Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($146) is $10.37 above a typical box ($136) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Adventures in the Forgotten Realms collector boosterbox TCG low $335, expected value $146, median box $136, 0% break-even, −56% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$6.50 (4.6%) · Box +$38.00 (13.6%) over 3m · ROI −3.9%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($27.92 vs $34.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −56% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $670 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Old Gnawbone, vs $99.74 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 96.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 46.63 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 30.38 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 6.99 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference