Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($346) is $64.68 above a typical box ($282) — 19%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
97%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
3%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 68th percentile — 68% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Wilds of Eldraine collector boosterbox TCG low $845, expected value $346, median box $282, 4% break-even, −59% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$3.50 (1.0%) · Box −$144 (-14.6%) over 3m · ROI +6.3%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($70.42 vs $89.24 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −59% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $10,140 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Smothering Tithe, vs $415 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.15 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 48.18 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 17.25 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 6.09 cards | 99.8% | 1 in 2 |
| Confetti foil | 0.336 cards | 28.5% | 1 in 4 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference