Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($357) is $75.80 above a typical box ($282) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
97%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
3%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 71st percentile — 71% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Wilds of Eldraine collector boosterbox TCG low $900, expected value $357, median box $282, 3% break-even, −60% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$24.56 (7.4%) · Box +$29.99 (3.4%) over 3m · ROI +1.5%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($75.00 vs $93.87 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −60% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $10,800 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Smothering Tithe, vs $423 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 48.66 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 16.80 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 6.21 cards | 99.8% | 1 in 2 |
| Confetti foil | 0.336 cards | 28.5% | 1 in 4 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference