Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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  2. /Innistrad: Crimson Vow
VOW·Released Nov 19, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$276
$23.00/pack
Expected value
$78.43
$6.54/pack
Net EV
−$198
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −72%

Sorin the Mirthless

$20.00 · 1 in 6 · 16% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$57.31
$77.16
$78.43
$101
$276
Floor (10%)
$57.31
Typical
$77.16
Average (EV)
$78.43
Lucky (90%)
$101
Box price
$276

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $276
EV $78.43
Median $77.16
$0$77$153$230$307$383$460

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boosterbox TCG low $276, expected value $78.43, median box $77.16, 0% break-even, −72% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster box is $78.43 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $77.16.
What are the odds of breaking even on Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($276). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Innistrad: Crimson Vow sealed?
Money pit. EV is $78.43 vs sealed $276 (−72% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV −$1.67 (-2.1%) · Box +$28.10 (12.7%) over 3m · ROI −4.7%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$276
Standalone pack listing
$2,000
Implied pack (box / packs)
$23.00
EV per pack
$6.54
$78.43 / box
Return opening box
−72%
Return buying packs at listing
−100%

The box is the better deal per pack ($23.00 vs $2,000 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −72% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$11.64
Pull any copy
1 in 3 (29.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
2
Cost of those boxes
$552
Boxes for 95% chance
8
Cost at 95%
$2,208

You'd spend about $552 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Shattered Sanctum, vs $11.64 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard84.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase47.93 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art30.49 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless17.58 cards100.0%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference