Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($313) is $85.62 above a typical box ($227) — 27%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
87%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
13%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector boosterbox TCG low $488, expected value $313, median box $227, 14% break-even, −36% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$42.18 (15.4%) · Box +$93.11 (23.6%) over 3m · ROI −4.6%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $39.00 vs $40.67 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $26.07/pack (−33% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $14,152 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mox Jasper, vs $1,666 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 49.09 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 12.12 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 10.67 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Halo foil | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Serialized | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference