Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($377) is $53.11 above a typical box ($324) — 14%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
89%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
11%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Strixhaven: School of Mages collector boosterbox TCG low $630, expected value $377, median box $324, 11% break-even, −40% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$46.10 (13.9%) · Box +$77.50 (14.0%) over 3m · ROI −0.1%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($52.50 vs $76.90 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −40% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $3,780 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Demonic Tutor, vs $481 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 29.15 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 21.94 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 20.91 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference