Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($207) is $51.82 above a typical box ($155) — 25%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
96%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
4%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 70th percentile — 70% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Marvel's Spider-Man collector boosterbox TCG low $412, expected value $207, median box $155, 4% break-even, −50% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$5.38 (2.7%) · Box +$56.65 (15.9%) over 3m · ROI −6.5%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $29.98 vs $34.37 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $17.26/pack (−42% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $23,924 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Soul Stone, vs $1,750 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 129.54 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 20.35 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 18.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Poster | 6.98 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 4.17 cards | 98.4% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.054 cards | 5.3% | 1 in 19 |
| Headliner | 0.0012 cards | 0.1% | 1 in 830 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference