Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($214) is $53.02 above a typical box ($161) — 25%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
95%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
5%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 69th percentile — 69% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Marvel's Spider-Man collector boosterbox TCG low $405, expected value $214, median box $161, 5% break-even, −47% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$38.38 (21.9%) · Box +$68.00 (20.2%) over 3m · ROI +0.7%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($33.75 vs $39.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −47% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $23,491 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Soul Stone, vs $1,776 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 129.54 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 20.35 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 18.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Poster | 6.98 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 4.17 cards | 98.4% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.054 cards | 5.3% | 1 in 19 |
| Headliner | 0.0012 cards | 0.1% | 1 in 830 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference