Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($236) is $82.72 above a typical box ($154) — 35%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 84th percentile — 84% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Secrets of Strixhaven collector boosterbox TCG low $499, expected value $236, median box $154, 2% break-even, −53% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$53.75 (-18.5%) · Box +$42.49 (9.3%) over 3m · ROI −16.2%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($41.62 vs $45.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −53% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $14,485 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Emeritus of Ideation // Ancestral Recall, vs $2,900 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 34.80 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 28.71 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 7.29 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
| Silver scroll | 1.20 cards | 69.9% | 1 in 2 |
| Serialized | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference