Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($239) is $82.50 above a typical box ($157) — 34%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
97%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
3%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Secrets of Strixhaven collector boosterbox TCG low $468, expected value $239, median box $157, 3% break-even, −49% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$27.47 (-10.3%) · Box −$26.99 (-5.6%) over 3m · ROI −2.8%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($39.00 vs $39.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −49% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $13,572 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Emeritus of Ideation // Ancestral Recall, vs $2,900 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 34.80 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 28.71 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 7.29 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
| Silver scroll | 1.20 cards | 69.9% | 1 in 2 |
| Serialized | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference