Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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SNC·Released Apr 29, 2022·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Streets of New Capenna collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$240
$19.99/pack
Expected value
$125
$10.39/pack
Net EV
−$115
Break-even
0.4%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −48%

Jetmir's Garden

$48.99 · 1 in 5 · 20% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$80.80
$122
$125
$173
$240
Floor (10%)
$80.80
Typical
$122
Average (EV)
$125
Lucky (90%)
$173
Box price
$240

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $240
EV $125
Median $122
$0$67$133$200$267$333$400

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Streets of New Capenna collector boosterbox TCG low $240, expected value $125, median box $122, 0% break-even, −48% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Streets of New Capenna collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Streets of New Capenna collector booster box is $125 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $122.
What are the odds of breaking even on Streets of New Capenna collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Streets of New Capenna collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($240). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Streets of New Capenna sealed?
Money pit. EV is $125 vs sealed $240 (−48% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$2.33 (1.9%) · Box +$34.46 (16.8%) over 3m · ROI −7.6%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$240
Standalone pack listing
$29.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$19.99
EV per pack
$10.39
$125 / box
Return opening box
−48%
Return buying packs at listing
−65%

The box is the better deal per pack ($19.99 vs $29.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −48% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$48.99
Pull any copy
1 in 5 (20.5% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
3
Cost of those boxes
$720
Boxes for 95% chance
12
Cost at 95%
$2,879

You'd spend about $720 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Jetmir's Garden, vs $48.99 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard96.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase47.54 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art28.54 cards100.0%Every time
Gilded4.60 cards99.0%1 in 2
Borderless3.32 cards96.4%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference