Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 53rd percentile — 53% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Streets of New Capenna collector boosterbox TCG low $314, expected value $131, median box $129, 0% break-even, −58% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$5.44 (4.3%) · Box +$76.00 (31.9%) over 3m · ROI −11.0%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($26.17 vs $29.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −58% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $942 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Jetmir's Garden, vs $44.00 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 96.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 47.54 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 28.54 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Gilded | 4.60 cards | 99.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 3.32 cards | 96.4% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference