Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($225) is $16.12 above a typical box ($209) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 57th percentile — 57% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty collector boosterbox TCG low $605, expected value $225, median box $209, 1% break-even, −63% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$16.17 (-6.7%) · Box +$105 (21.0%) over 3m · ROI −11.0%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($50.42 vs $65.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −63% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,815 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Boseiju, Who Endures, vs $140 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 84.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 63.89 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 29.12 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 2.90 cards | 94.5% | 1 in 2 |
| Neon ink | 0.081 cards | 7.7% | 1 in 13 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference