MSH·Released Jun 26, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Marvel Super Heroes collector booster EV
Verdict
Roughly break-even
Loading opener...
What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$235
$359
$395
$470
$561
Floor (10%)
$235
Typical
$359
Average (EV)
$395
Lucky (90%)
$561
Box price
$470
The average box ($395) is $36.27 above a typical box ($359) — 9%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
80%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
20%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $470
EV $395
Median $359
$0$129$258$388$517$646$775
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Marvel Super Heroes collector boosterbox TCG low $470, expected value $395, median box $359, 21% break-even, −16% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box is $395 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $359.
What are the odds of breaking even on Marvel Super Heroes collector boosters?
About 21% of simulated Marvel Super Heroes collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($470). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Marvel Super Heroes sealed?
Roughly break-even. EV is $395 vs sealed $470 (−16% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$0.94 (-0.2%) · Box +$0.70 (0.1%) over 3m · ROI −0.3%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$470
Standalone pack listing
$39.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$39.17
EV per pack
$32.94
$395 / box
Return opening box
−16%
Return buying packs at listing
−18%
The box is the better deal per pack ($39.17 vs $39.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −16% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,571
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$27,259
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$117,028
You'd spend about $27,259 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Mind Stone, vs $1,571 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.