MSH·Released Jun 26, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Marvel Super Heroes collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$158
$243
$273
$379
$480
Floor (10%)
$158
Typical
$243
Average (EV)
$273
Lucky (90%)
$379
Box price
$480
The average box ($273) is $29.75 above a typical box ($243) — 11%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $480
EV $273 · 63rd
Median $243
$0$129$258$388$517$646$775
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 63rd percentile — 63% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Marvel Super Heroes collector boosterbox TCG low $480, expected value $273, median box $243, 3% break-even, −43% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box is $273 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $243.
What are the odds of breaking even on Marvel Super Heroes collector boosters?
About 3% of simulated Marvel Super Heroes collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($480). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Marvel Super Heroes sealed?
Money pit. EV is $273 vs sealed $480 (−43% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$122 (-30.9%) · Box +$9.91 (2.1%) over 3m · ROI −27.2%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$480
Standalone pack listing
$35.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$39.99
EV per pack
$22.75
$273 / box
Return opening box
−43%
Return buying packs at listing
−35%
Standalone packs list at $35.00 vs $39.99 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $22.75/pack (−35% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,575
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$27,834
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$119,495
You'd spend about $27,834 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Mind Stone, vs $1,575 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.