Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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MSH·Released Jun 26, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Marvel Super Heroes collector booster EV

Verdict
Roughly break-even
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Set snapshot

Box price
$470
$39.17/pack
Expected value
$395
$32.94/pack
Net EV
−$74.76
Break-even
21.4%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −16%

The Mind Stone

$1,571 · 1 in 84 · 1% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$235
$359
$395
$470
$561
Floor (10%)
$235
Typical
$359
Average (EV)
$395
Lucky (90%)
$561
Box price
$470

The average box ($395) is $36.27 above a typical box ($359) — 9%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

80%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

20%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $470
EV $395
Median $359
$0$129$258$388$517$646$775

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Marvel Super Heroes collector boosterbox TCG low $470, expected value $395, median box $359, 21% break-even, −16% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box is $395 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $359.
What are the odds of breaking even on Marvel Super Heroes collector boosters?
About 21% of simulated Marvel Super Heroes collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($470). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Marvel Super Heroes sealed?
Roughly break-even. EV is $395 vs sealed $470 (−16% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV −$0.94 (-0.2%) · Box +$0.70 (0.1%) over 3m · ROI −0.3%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$470
Standalone pack listing
$39.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$39.17
EV per pack
$32.94
$395 / box
Return opening box
−16%
Return buying packs at listing
−18%

The box is the better deal per pack ($39.17 vs $39.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −16% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$1,571
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$27,259
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$117,028

You'd spend about $27,259 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Mind Stone, vs $1,571 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard119.66 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless36.95 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art19.36 cards100.0%1 in 2
Showcase3.79 cards97.7%1 in 2
Poster0.237 cards21.1%1 in 5
Headliner0.0012 cards0.1%1 in 830

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference