Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

Videos · Portfolio · Pull rates · Methodology · Compare sets · llms.txt · Why we don't crack · for educational purposes

WWhy we don't crack
VideosPortfolioPull ratesCompareMarketMethodology
  1. Home
  2. /Innistrad: Midnight Hunt
MID·Released Sep 24, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...

Set snapshot

Box price
$280
$23.34/pack
Expected value
$73.91
$6.16/pack
Net EV
−$206
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −74%

The Meathook Massacre

$29.70 · 1 in 5 · 19% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$51.64
$71.15
$73.91
$101
$280
Floor (10%)
$51.64
Typical
$71.15
Average (EV)
$73.91
Lucky (90%)
$101
Box price
$280

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $280
EV $73.91 · 54th
Median $71.15
$0$77$153$230$307$383$460

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 54th percentile — 54% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector boosterbox TCG low $280, expected value $73.91, median box $71.15, 0% break-even, −74% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector booster box is $73.91 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $71.15.
What are the odds of breaking even on Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($280). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Innistrad: Midnight Hunt sealed?
Money pit. EV is $73.91 vs sealed $280 (−74% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$2.56 (3.6%) · Box +$49.14 (21.3%) over 3m · ROI −4.5%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$280
Standalone pack listing
—
Implied pack (box / packs)
$23.34
EV per pack
$6.16
$73.91 / box
Return opening box
−74%
Return buying packs at listing
—

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$12.51
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (45.0% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$280
Boxes for 95% chance
4
Cost at 95%
$1,121

You'd spend about $280 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Haunted Ridge, vs $12.51 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard84.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase60.55 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art31.57 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless3.88 cards97.9%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference