Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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MID·Released Sep 24, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$231
$19.25/pack
Expected value
$71.35
$5.95/pack
Net EV
−$160
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −69%

The Meathook Massacre

$28.92 · 1 in 5 · 19% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$49.33
$68.05
$71.35
$97.34
$231
Floor (10%)
$49.33
Typical
$68.05
Average (EV)
$71.35
Lucky (90%)
$97.34
Box price
$231

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $231
EV $71.35
Median $68.05
$0$63$127$190$253$317$380

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector boosterbox TCG low $231, expected value $71.35, median box $68.05, 0% break-even, −69% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector booster box is $71.35 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $68.05.
What are the odds of breaking even on Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Innistrad: Midnight Hunt collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($231). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Innistrad: Midnight Hunt sealed?
Money pit. EV is $71.35 vs sealed $231 (−69% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$2.31 (3.4%) · Box +$36.99 (19.1%) over 3m · ROI −4.7%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$231
Standalone pack listing
—
Implied pack (box / packs)
$19.25
EV per pack
$5.95
$71.35 / box
Return opening box
−69%
Return buying packs at listing
—

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$11.20
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (45.0% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$231
Boxes for 95% chance
4
Cost at 95%
$924

You'd spend about $231 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Haunted Ridge, vs $11.20 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard84.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase60.55 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art31.57 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless3.88 cards97.9%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference