Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($145) is $6.35 above a typical box ($138) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 56th percentile — 56% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boosterbox TCG low $265, expected value $145, median box $138, 2% break-even, −45% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$3.29 (2.3%) · Box +$26.01 (10.9%) over 3m · ROI −4.6%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($22.08 vs $29.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −45% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $4,505 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin, vs $125 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 36.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 20.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 12.00 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Halo foil | 4.00 cards | 98.2% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference