Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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MAT·Released May 12, 2023·12 packs / box · 6 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$239
$19.92/pack
Expected value
$141
$11.79/pack
Net EV
−$97.50
Break-even
2.5%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −41%

Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin

$93.42 · 1 in 26 · 4% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$88.86
$136
$141
$199
$239
Floor (10%)
$88.86
Typical
$136
Average (EV)
$141
Lucky (90%)
$199
Box price
$239

The average box ($141) is $5.56 above a typical box ($136) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

98%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

2%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $239
EV $141
Median $136
$0$67$133$200$267$333$400

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boosterbox TCG low $239, expected value $141, median box $136, 2% break-even, −41% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector booster box is $141 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $136.
What are the odds of breaking even on March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boosters?
About 2% of simulated March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($239). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold March of the Machine: The Aftermath sealed?
Money pit. EV is $141 vs sealed $239 (−41% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$11.86 (9.1%) · Box +$59.54 (33.2%) over 3m · ROI −13.1%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$239
Standalone pack listing
$24.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$19.92
EV per pack
$11.79
$141 / box
Return opening box
−41%
Return buying packs at listing
−53%

The box is the better deal per pack ($19.92 vs $24.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −41% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$27.75
Pull any copy
1 in 6 (18.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
4
Cost of those boxes
$956
Boxes for 95% chance
14
Cost at 95%
$3,346

You'd spend about $956 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Nissa, Resurgent Animist, vs $27.75 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard36.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase20.00 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art12.00 cards100.0%1 in 2
Halo foil4.00 cards98.2%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference