LCI·Released Nov 17, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...
What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$226
$329
$396
$594
$1,297
Floor (10%)
$226
Typical
$329
Average (EV)
$396
Lucky (90%)
$594
Box price
$1,297
The average box ($396) is $67.29 above a typical box ($329) — 17%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $1,297
EV $396 · 72nd
Median $329
$0$350$700$1,050$1,400$1,750$2,100
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 72nd percentile — 72% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosterbox TCG low $1,297, expected value $396, median box $329, 1% break-even, −69% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box is $396 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $329.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,297). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lost Caverns of Ixalan sealed?
Money pit. EV is $396 vs sealed $1,297 (−69% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$5.74 (1.5%) · Box +$109 (9.1%) over 3m · ROI −2.3%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$1,297
Standalone pack listing
$120
Implied pack (box / packs)
$108
EV per pack
$33.03
$396 / box
Return opening box
−69%
Return buying packs at listing
−72%
The box is the better deal per pack ($108 vs $120 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −69% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$75.00
Pull any copy
1 in 4 (23.8% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
3
Cost of those boxes
$3,892
Boxes for 95% chance
10
Cost at 95%
$12,975
You'd spend about $3,892 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Hunting Velociraptor, vs $75.00 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.