Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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KHM·Released Feb 5, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Kaldheim collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$410
$34.17/pack
Expected value
$188
$15.70/pack
Net EV
−$222
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −54%

Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider

$73.74 · 1 in 7 · 15% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$128
$182
$188
$255
$410
Floor (10%)
$128
Typical
$182
Average (EV)
$188
Lucky (90%)
$255
Box price
$410

The average box ($188) is $6.17 above a typical box ($182) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $410
EV $188 · 55th
Median $182
$0$110$220$330$440$550$660

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 55th percentile — 55% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Kaldheim collector boosterbox TCG low $410, expected value $188, median box $182, 0% break-even, −54% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Kaldheim collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Kaldheim collector booster box is $188 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $182.
What are the odds of breaking even on Kaldheim collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Kaldheim collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($410). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Kaldheim sealed?
Money pit. EV is $188 vs sealed $410 (−54% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$14.79 (8.5%) · Box +$101 (32.5%) over 3m · ROI −10.2%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$410
Standalone pack listing
—
Implied pack (box / packs)
$34.17
EV per pack
$15.70
$188 / box
Return opening box
−54%
Return buying packs at listing
—

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$41.08
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (47.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$410
Boxes for 95% chance
3
Cost at 95%
$1,230

You'd spend about $410 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty, vs $41.08 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard120.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase35.52 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art19.13 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless5.35 cards99.5%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference