Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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KHM·Released Feb 5, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Kaldheim collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$325
$27.08/pack
Expected value
$173
$14.45/pack
Net EV
−$152
Break-even
0.6%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −47%

Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider

$70.00 · 1 in 7 · 15% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$113
$168
$173
$240
$325
Floor (10%)
$113
Typical
$168
Average (EV)
$173
Lucky (90%)
$240
Box price
$325

The average box ($173) is $5.23 above a typical box ($168) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $325
EV $173
Median $168
$0$87$173$260$347$433$520

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Kaldheim collector boosterbox TCG low $325, expected value $173, median box $168, 1% break-even, −47% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Kaldheim collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Kaldheim collector booster box is $173 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $168.
What are the odds of breaking even on Kaldheim collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated Kaldheim collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($325). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Kaldheim sealed?
Money pit. EV is $173 vs sealed $325 (−47% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV −$4.02 (-2.3%) · Box +$35.00 (12.1%) over 3m · ROI −7.8%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$325
Standalone pack listing
—
Implied pack (box / packs)
$27.08
EV per pack
$14.45
$173 / box
Return opening box
−47%
Return buying packs at listing
—

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$52.50
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (47.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$325
Boxes for 95% chance
3
Cost at 95%
$975

You'd spend about $325 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty, vs $52.50 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard120.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase35.52 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art19.13 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless5.35 cards99.5%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference