Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($273) is $69.64 above a typical box ($203) — 26%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 87th percentile — 87% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Innistrad Remastered collector boosterbox TCG low $486, expected value $273, median box $203, 2% break-even, −44% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$36.20 (15.3%) · Box +$41.06 (9.2%) over 3m · ROI +3.0%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($40.50 vs $48.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −44% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $14,094 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Edgar Markov, vs $2,825 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 162.69 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 12.40 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Poster | 3.35 cards | 96.5% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 1.56 cards | 79.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Serialized | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference