Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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IKO·Released Apr 24, 2020·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$650
$54.17/pack
Expected value
$375
$31.22/pack
Net EV
−$275
Break-even
1.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −42%

Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy

$119 · 1 in 7 · 15% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$252
$366
$375
$509
$650
Floor (10%)
$252
Typical
$366
Average (EV)
$375
Lucky (90%)
$509
Box price
$650

The average box ($375) is $8.41 above a typical box ($366) — 2%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

99%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

1%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $650
EV $375
Median $366
$0$175$350$525$700$875$1,050

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector boosterbox TCG low $650, expected value $375, median box $366, 1% break-even, −42% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector booster box is $375 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $366.
What are the odds of breaking even on Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($650). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths sealed?
Money pit. EV is $375 vs sealed $650 (−42% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$12.01 (3.3%) · Box +$155 (32.0%) over 3m · ROI −16.3%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$650
Standalone pack listing
$39.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$54.17
EV per pack
$31.22
$375 / box
Return opening box
−42%
Return buying packs at listing
−22%

Standalone packs list at $39.99 vs $54.17 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $31.22/pack (−22% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$43.03
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (64.8% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$650
Boxes for 95% chance
1
Cost at 95%
$650

You'd spend about $650 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ketria Triome, vs $43.03 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard104.67 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase46.43 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art15.33 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless13.57 cards100.0%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference