Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

Videos · Portfolio · Pull rates · Methodology · Compare sets · llms.txt · Why we don't crack · for educational purposes

WWhy we don't crack
VideosPortfolioPull ratesCompareMarketMethodology
  1. Home
  2. /Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths
IKO·Released Apr 24, 2020·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...

Set snapshot

Box price
$688
$57.33/pack
Expected value
$379
$31.58/pack
Net EV
−$309
Break-even
0.5%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −45%

Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy

$135 · 1 in 7 · 15% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$257
$369
$379
$510
$688
Floor (10%)
$257
Typical
$369
Average (EV)
$379
Lucky (90%)
$510
Box price
$688

The average box ($379) is $10.10 above a typical box ($369) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $688
EV $379 · 53rd
Median $369
$0$192$383$575$767$958$1,150

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 53rd percentile — 53% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector boosterbox TCG low $688, expected value $379, median box $369, 0% break-even, −45% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector booster box is $379 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $369.
What are the odds of breaking even on Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($688). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths sealed?
Money pit. EV is $379 vs sealed $688 (−45% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV −$1.73 (-0.5%) · Box +$108 (18.6%) over 3m · ROI −10.6%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$688
Standalone pack listing
$57.18
Implied pack (box / packs)
$57.33
EV per pack
$31.58
$379 / box
Return opening box
−45%
Return buying packs at listing
−45%

Standalone packs list at $57.18 vs $57.33 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $31.58/pack (−45% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$41.00
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (64.8% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$688
Boxes for 95% chance
1
Cost at 95%
$688

You'd spend about $688 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ketria Triome, vs $41.00 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard104.67 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase46.43 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art15.33 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless13.57 cards100.0%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference