Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($381) is $10.00 above a typical box ($371) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 54th percentile — 54% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths collector boosterbox TCG low $620, expected value $381, median box $371, 2% break-even, −39% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$6.57 (1.8%) · Box −$30.00 (-4.6%) over 3m · ROI +3.8%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($51.67 vs $57.18 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −39% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $620 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ketria Triome, vs $42.49 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 104.67 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 46.43 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 15.33 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 13.57 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference