Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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FIN·Released Jun 13, 2025·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Final Fantasy collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$1,874
$156/pack
Expected value
$793
$66.08/pack
Net EV
−$1,081
Break-even
4.5%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −58%

Traveling Chocobo

$5,950 · 1 in 140 · 1% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$354
$628
$793
$1,349
$1,874
Floor (10%)
$354
Typical
$628
Average (EV)
$793
Lucky (90%)
$1,349
Box price
$1,874

The average box ($793) is $165 above a typical box ($628) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

96%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

4%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $1,874
EV $793
Median $628
$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Final Fantasy collector boosterbox TCG low $1,874, expected value $793, median box $628, 5% break-even, −58% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Final Fantasy collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Final Fantasy collector booster box is $793 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $628.
What are the odds of breaking even on Final Fantasy collector boosters?
About 5% of simulated Final Fantasy collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,874). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Final Fantasy sealed?
Money pit. EV is $793 vs sealed $1,874 (−58% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$168 (26.9%) · Box +$737 (64.1%) over 3m · ROI −12.3%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$1,874
Standalone pack listing
$142
Implied pack (box / packs)
$156
EV per pack
$66.08
$793 / box
Return opening box
−58%
Return buying packs at listing
−53%

Standalone packs list at $142 vs $156 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $66.08/pack (−53% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$5,950
Pull any copy
1 in 140 (0.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
96
Cost of those boxes
$179,946
Boxes for 95% chance
415
Cost at 95%
$777,893

You'd spend about $179,946 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Traveling Chocobo, vs $5,950 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard97.33 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless48.13 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art30.93 cards100.0%Every time
Surge foil3.58 cards97.2%1 in 2
Neon ink0.029 cards2.8%1 in 35
Serialized0.024 cards2.4%1 in 42

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference