Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($125) is $15.34 above a typical box ($110) — 12%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 61st percentile — 61% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Throne of Eldraine collector boosterbox TCG low $436, expected value $125, median box $110, 0% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$4.10 (3.4%) · Box +$4.00 (0.9%) over 3m · ROI +0.7%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $32.00 vs $36.33 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $10.44/pack (−67% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,308 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Wishclaw Talisman, vs $123 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 115.75 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 48.04 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 15.39 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 0.816 cards | 55.8% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference