Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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ELD·Released Oct 4, 2019·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Throne of Eldraine collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$434
$36.17/pack
Expected value
$126
$10.51/pack
Net EV
−$308
Break-even
0.1%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −71%

The Great Henge

$152 · 1 in 7 · 13% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$69.97
$111
$126
$207
$434
Floor (10%)
$69.97
Typical
$111
Average (EV)
$126
Lucky (90%)
$207
Box price
$434

The average box ($126) is $14.98 above a typical box ($111) — 12%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $434
EV $126 · 60th
Median $111
$0$117$233$350$467$583$700

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 60th percentile — 60% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Throne of Eldraine collector boosterbox TCG low $434, expected value $126, median box $111, 0% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Throne of Eldraine collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Throne of Eldraine collector booster box is $126 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $111.
What are the odds of breaking even on Throne of Eldraine collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Throne of Eldraine collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($434). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Throne of Eldraine sealed?
Money pit. EV is $126 vs sealed $434 (−71% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$5.06 (4.2%) · Box +$43.99 (11.3%) over 3m · ROI −2.0%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$434
Standalone pack listing
$30.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$36.17
EV per pack
$10.51
$126 / box
Return opening box
−71%
Return buying packs at listing
−65%

Standalone packs list at $30.00 vs $36.17 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $10.51/pack (−65% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$120
Pull any copy
1 in 4 (25.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
3
Cost of those boxes
$1,302
Boxes for 95% chance
9
Cost at 95%
$3,906

You'd spend about $1,302 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Wishclaw Talisman, vs $120 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard128.17 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase35.72 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art15.36 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless0.758 cards53.1%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference