Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($253) is $21.53 above a typical box ($231) — 9%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 61st percentile — 61% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Duskmourn: House of Horror collector boosterbox TCG low $835, expected value $253, median box $231, 0% break-even, −70% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$20.39 (8.8%) · Box +$95.01 (12.8%) over 3m · ROI −1.1%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($69.58 vs $76.66 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −70% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $5,845 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Enduring Vitality, vs $83.95 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 130.22 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 18.71 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 17.53 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 13.30 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Fracture foil | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference