Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($168) is $11.15 above a typical box ($157) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 55th percentile — 55% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Dominaria United collector boosterbox TCG low $398, expected value $168, median box $157, 2% break-even, −58% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$17.29 (11.5%) · Box +$101 (34.0%) over 3m · ROI −8.5%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($33.17 vs $33.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −58% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,194 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, vs $105 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 120.98 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 23.12 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 12.00 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 4.98 cards | 99.3% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference