Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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CMR·Released Nov 20, 2020·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Commander Legends collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$789
$65.75/pack
Expected value
$358
$29.80/pack
Net EV
−$431
Break-even
0.1%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −55%

Jeweled Lotus

$210 · 1 in 8 · 12% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$251
$345
$358
$479
$789
Floor (10%)
$251
Typical
$345
Average (EV)
$358
Lucky (90%)
$479
Box price
$789

The average box ($358) is $12.08 above a typical box ($345) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $789
EV $358
Median $345
$0$217$433$650$867$1,083$1,300

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Commander Legends collector boosterbox TCG low $789, expected value $358, median box $345, 0% break-even, −55% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Commander Legends collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Commander Legends collector booster box is $358 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $345.
What are the odds of breaking even on Commander Legends collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Commander Legends collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($789). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Commander Legends sealed?
Money pit. EV is $358 vs sealed $789 (−55% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$3.44 (1.0%) · Box +$69.99 (9.7%) over 3m · ROI −3.9%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$789
Standalone pack listing
$71.31
Implied pack (box / packs)
$65.75
EV per pack
$29.80
$358 / box
Return opening box
−55%
Return buying packs at listing
−58%

The box is the better deal per pack ($65.75 vs $71.31 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −55% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$49.76
Pull any copy
1 in 4 (22.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
3
Cost of those boxes
$2,367
Boxes for 95% chance
11
Cost at 95%
$8,679

You'd spend about $2,367 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Jeska's Will, vs $49.76 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard147.16 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art32.40 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless0.436 cards35.4%1 in 3

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference