CMM·Released Aug 4, 2023·4 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Commander Masters collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$177
$280
$302
$444
$585
Floor (10%)
$177
Typical
$280
Average (EV)
$302
Lucky (90%)
$444
Box price
$585
The average box ($302) is $22.43 above a typical box ($280) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
97%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
3%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $585
EV $302 · 58th
Median $280
$0$158$317$475$633$792$950
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 58th percentile — 58% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Commander Masters collector boosterbox TCG low $585, expected value $302, median box $280, 3% break-even, −48% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Commander Masters collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Commander Masters collector booster box is $302 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $280.
What are the odds of breaking even on Commander Masters collector boosters?
About 3% of simulated Commander Masters collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($585). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Commander Masters sealed?
Money pit. EV is $302 vs sealed $585 (−48% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$9.72 (3.3%) · Box +$85.01 (17.0%) over 3m · ROI −6.8%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$585
Standalone pack listing
$136
Implied pack (box / packs)
$146
EV per pack
$75.57
$302 / box
Return opening box
−48%
Return buying packs at listing
−44%
Standalone packs list at $136 vs $146 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $75.57/pack (−44% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$171
Pull any copy
1 in 6 (16.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
4
Cost of those boxes
$2,340
Boxes for 95% chance
15
Cost at 95%
$8,775
You'd spend about $2,340 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Deflecting Swat, vs $171 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.