BRO·Released Nov 18, 2022·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Brothers' War collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$124
$201
$255
$469
$850
Floor (10%)
$124
Typical
$201
Average (EV)
$255
Lucky (90%)
$469
Box price
$850
The average box ($255) is $53.94 above a typical box ($201) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $850
EV $255
Median $201
$0$233$467$700$933$1,167$1,400
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
The Brothers' War collector boosterbox TCG low $850, expected value $255, median box $201, 1% break-even, −70% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Brothers' War collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Brothers' War collector booster box is $255 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $201.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Brothers' War collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated The Brothers' War collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($850). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Brothers' War sealed?
Money pit. EV is $255 vs sealed $850 (−70% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$27.07 (11.5%) · Box +$285 (56.4%) over 3m · ROI −13.4%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$850
Standalone pack listing
$68.98
Implied pack (box / packs)
$70.83
EV per pack
$21.22
$255 / box
Return opening box
−70%
Return buying packs at listing
−69%
Standalone packs list at $68.98 vs $70.83 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $21.22/pack (−69% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$402
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (9.6% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$5,950
Boxes for 95% chance
29
Cost at 95%
$24,650
You'd spend about $5,950 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader, vs $402 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.