BRO·Released Nov 18, 2022·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Brothers' War collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$132
$199
$237
$395
$810
Floor (10%)
$132
Typical
$199
Average (EV)
$237
Lucky (90%)
$395
Box price
$810
The average box ($237) is $37.50 above a typical box ($199) — 16%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $810
EV $237 · 65th
Median $199
$0$217$433$650$867$1,083$1,300
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 65th percentile — 65% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
The Brothers' War collector boosterbox TCG low $810, expected value $237, median box $199, 1% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Brothers' War collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Brothers' War collector booster box is $237 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $199.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Brothers' War collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated The Brothers' War collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($810). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Brothers' War sealed?
Money pit. EV is $237 vs sealed $810 (−71% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$18.02 (-7.1%) · Box −$39.99 (-4.7%) over 3m · ROI −0.7%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$810
Standalone pack listing
$71.24
Implied pack (box / packs)
$67.50
EV per pack
$19.72
$237 / box
Return opening box
−71%
Return buying packs at listing
−72%
The box is the better deal per pack ($67.50 vs $71.24 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −71% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$470
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (9.8% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$5,670
Boxes for 95% chance
28
Cost at 95%
$22,680
You'd spend about $5,670 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Starscream, Power Hungry // Starscream, Seeker Leader, vs $470 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.