Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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BLB·Released Aug 2, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Bloomburrow collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$1,349
$112/pack
Expected value
$380
$31.66/pack
Net EV
−$969
Break-even
1.7%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −72%

Ms. Bumbleflower

$1,477 · 1 in 75 · 1% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$184
$296
$380
$654
$1,349
Floor (10%)
$184
Typical
$296
Average (EV)
$380
Lucky (90%)
$654
Box price
$1,349

The average box ($380) is $83.62 above a typical box ($296) — 22%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

98%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

2%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $1,349
EV $380 · 68th
Median $296
$0$367$733$1,100$1,467$1,833$2,200

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 68th percentile — 68% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Bloomburrow collector boosterbox TCG low $1,349, expected value $380, median box $296, 2% break-even, −72% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Bloomburrow collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Bloomburrow collector booster box is $380 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $296.
What are the odds of breaking even on Bloomburrow collector boosters?
About 2% of simulated Bloomburrow collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,349). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Bloomburrow sealed?
Money pit. EV is $380 vs sealed $1,349 (−72% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$25.70 (7.3%) · Box +$199 (17.3%) over 3m · ROI −2.6%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$1,349
Standalone pack listing
$126
Implied pack (box / packs)
$112
EV per pack
$31.66
$380 / box
Return opening box
−72%
Return buying packs at listing
−75%

The box is the better deal per pack ($112 vs $126 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −72% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$1,477
Pull any copy
1 in 75 (1.3% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
52
Cost of those boxes
$70,148
Boxes for 95% chance
223
Cost at 95%
$300,827

You'd spend about $70,148 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ms. Bumbleflower, vs $1,477 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard132.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase17.83 cards100.0%1 in 2
Extended art16.50 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless13.23 cards100.0%1 in 2
Raised foil0.442 cards35.7%1 in 3

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference