BLB·Released Aug 2, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Bloomburrow collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$176
$284
$354
$627
$1,150
Floor (10%)
$176
Typical
$284
Average (EV)
$354
Lucky (90%)
$627
Box price
$1,150
The average box ($354) is $70.08 above a typical box ($284) — 20%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $1,150
EV $354
Median $284
$0$317$633$950$1,267$1,583$1,900
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Bloomburrow collector boosterbox TCG low $1,150, expected value $354, median box $284, 2% break-even, −69% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Bloomburrow collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Bloomburrow collector booster box is $354 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $284.
What are the odds of breaking even on Bloomburrow collector boosters?
About 2% of simulated Bloomburrow collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,150). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Bloomburrow sealed?
Money pit. EV is $354 vs sealed $1,150 (−69% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$33.15 (10.3%) · Box +$325 (39.4%) over 3m · ROI −8.1%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$1,150
Standalone pack listing
$92.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$95.83
EV per pack
$29.50
$354 / box
Return opening box
−69%
Return buying packs at listing
−68%
Standalone packs list at $92.99 vs $95.83 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $29.50/pack (−68% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,230
Pull any copy
1 in 75 (1.3% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
52
Cost of those boxes
$59,799
Boxes for 95% chance
223
Cost at 95%
$256,448
You'd spend about $59,799 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ms. Bumbleflower, vs $1,230 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.