Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($341) is $101 above a typical box ($239) — 30%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
91%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
9%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 87th percentile — 87% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Assassin's Creed collector boosterbox TCG low $554, expected value $341, median box $239, 9% break-even, −39% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$46.72 (15.9%) · Box −$30.01 (-5.1%) over 3m · ROI +11.2%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($46.17 vs $74.88 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −39% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $16,066 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Leonardo da Vinci, vs $2,035 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 82.37 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 16.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 16.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 3.42 cards | 96.7% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.373 cards | 31.1% | 1 in 3 |
| Serialized | 0.096 cards | 9.2% | 1 in 11 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference