Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$147
$257
$274
$427
$460
Floor (10%)
$147
Typical
$257
Average (EV)
$274
Lucky (90%)
$427
Box price
$460
The average box ($274) is $17.28 above a typical box ($257) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
6%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $460
EV $274 · 56th
Median $257
$0$125$250$375$500$625$750
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 56th percentile — 56% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Double Masters 2022 collector boosterbox TCG low $460, expected value $274, median box $257, 7% break-even, −40% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box is $274 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $257.
What are the odds of breaking even on Double Masters 2022 collector boosters?
About 7% of simulated Double Masters 2022 collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($460). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Double Masters 2022 sealed?
Money pit. EV is $274 vs sealed $460 (−40% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$4.79 (-1.7%) · Box +$20.00 (4.5%) over 3m · ROI −3.8%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$460
Standalone pack listing
$116
Implied pack (box / packs)
$115
EV per pack
$68.60
$274 / box
Return opening box
−40%
Return buying packs at listing
−41%
The box is the better deal per pack ($115 vs $116 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −40% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$201
Pull any copy
1 in 11 (9.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$3,220
Boxes for 95% chance
29
Cost at 95%
$13,340
You'd spend about $3,220 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mana Vault, vs $201 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.