Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$151
$261
$279
$437
$440
Floor (10%)
$151
Typical
$261
Average (EV)
$279
Lucky (90%)
$437
Box price
$440
The average box ($279) is $17.96 above a typical box ($261) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
91%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
9%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $440
EV $279
Median $261
$0$121$242$363$483$604$725
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Double Masters 2022 collector boosterbox TCG low $440, expected value $279, median box $261, 10% break-even, −37% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box is $279 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $261.
What are the odds of breaking even on Double Masters 2022 collector boosters?
About 10% of simulated Double Masters 2022 collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($440). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Double Masters 2022 sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $279 vs sealed $440 (−37% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$16.39 (6.2%) · Box +$74.99 (20.5%) over 3m · ROI −8.6%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$440
Standalone pack listing
$110
Implied pack (box / packs)
$110
EV per pack
$69.80
$279 / box
Return opening box
−37%
Return buying packs at listing
−37%
The box is the better deal per pack ($110 vs $110 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −37% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$210
Pull any copy
1 in 11 (9.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$3,080
Boxes for 95% chance
30
Cost at 95%
$13,200
You'd spend about $3,080 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mana Vault, vs $210 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.